Road Safety in a Post-Covid World: Improvements Seen, But Goals Remain Distant

The International Transport Forum's (ITF) "Road Safety Annual Report 2023" provides a comparative analysis of traffic safety data from 35 IRTAD countries. The report's clearest message is this: While traffic-related deaths continue to decrease in many countries, we are still far from the goal of halving fatalities by 2030.

Return to "Normal" After the Shock of 2020

During the pandemic period (2020–2021), mobility dropped sharply worldwide, and parallel to this, traffic accidents and fatalities also decreased. 2022 is seen as a "transition year" where restrictions were lifted, but mobility habits did not completely return to their former state:

• In 2022, vehicle kilometers in many countries were still slightly below the 2017-2019 average; remote work and rising fuel prices have permanently affected daily commuting.
• Looking at the total of 35 IRTAD countries, traffic deaths in 2022 increased by 3.2% compared to the 2017-2019 average. However, when the USA is excluded, a 6.4% decrease is observed. In other words, the negative trend in the USA alone can reverse the global picture.
• Preliminary data for the first half of 2023 shows that the number of deaths in 24 countries decreased by an average of 2.8% compared to 2022. Yet, this decline is quite insufficient when compared to the United Nations' goal of halving deaths by 2030.

Successful Countries and Those Left Behind

When looking at the 2012–2022 period, the picture is clearer:

• Lithuania, Korea, and Poland are the countries making the most progress, reducing traffic deaths by 60%, 49%, and 47% respectively in 10 years.

• Japan, Greece, Belgium, Slovenia, and Austria are also among the countries achieving a reduction of over 30%.

• In contrast, traffic deaths have increased over 10 years in Colombia (+51%), the USA (+27%), New Zealand, Israel, and Costa Rica.

This difference is directly related to how well national strategies and the "Safe System Approach" are reflected in the field. The ITF emphasizes that countries must develop holistic and data-driven policies in areas such as speed management, alcohol/drug controls, safe infrastructure, and safe vehicles.

Risk Indicators: Who is Safer?

The report uses three main indicators: deaths per population (per 100,000 inhabitants), deaths per number of vehicles (per 10,000 motor vehicles), and deaths per distance travelled (per billion vehicle-km).

• In 2022, Norway had the lowest mortality rate with 2.1 deaths per 100,000 people. Sweden (2.2), Iceland (2.4), Japan, Denmark, and the United Kingdom (2.6) are also in the "safest" group.

• The USA (12.8), Chile (10.8), Costa Rica (15.2), and Colombia (15.5) are at the riskiest end of the list with a mortality rate of over 10 per 100,000 people.
• Looking at vehicle numbers, deaths per 10,000 vehicles are below 0.5 in Iceland, Norway, Sweden, and Japan. In Chile and Colombia, this indicator is 3.5 and 4.5, respectively.

These differences reflect not only infrastructure quality but also a combination of factors such as enforcement, speed limits, the age of the vehicle fleet, the prevalence of public transport, and "traffic culture."

Conclusion: Goals Cannot Be Reached Without Data-Driven Policy

One of the main messages highlighted in the report is that the importance of quality and comparable data is greater than ever. With the Lyon Declaration, IRTAD countries commit to data harmonization, monitoring of national strategies, and making "Safe System" implementations measurable to achieve 2030 goals.

In short; global traffic safety is moving in the right direction but very slowly. If we do not start considering classic measures like speed limits, alcohol/drug enforcement, safe infrastructure, and vehicle standards alongside an aging population, new mobility types, and climate policies, the 2030 goal is doomed to remain on paper.

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